Australia finds itself in a fix over climate change

The Copenhagen conference on climate change is causing havoc in Australia, where climate change sceptics are blocking the government's emission reduction plans, making early elections in 2010 a distinct possibility.

The Murray was once an impressive river, but its estuary in South Australia is now little more than a pathetic stream. If there is one continent where the climate change conference, which starts next week in Copenhagen, should matter it is Australia. No place else is so affected by drought, and yet nowhere else are politicians more divided on the issue of climate change.

Ironically, it is in the state of South Australia that the opposition to prime minister Kevin Rudd's green policies is the fiercest. It is the home base of conservative and climate sceptic Nick Minchin, who represents the state in the Australian senate.

Left-wing conspiracy
Minchin claims man-mad climate change is a left-wing conspiracy. "You know the collapse of communism was a disaster for the Left," he said last month, "they embraced environmentalism as their new religion."

On the surface Australia isn't doing so badly in terms of carbon dioxide emissions: it is responsible for only 1.5 percent of global emissions. But when it comes to per capita emissions Australia is among the biggest polluters on the planet.

Minchin is a thorn in the side of the progressive Labour government's environment policies. He is particularly opposed to the government's proposed emissions trading scheme legislation (ETS). On Wednesday the liberals, with the support of the Green party, which wants even stronger measures, defeated Rudd's proposal in the senate, raising the spectre of early elections in 2010.

Wrong side of history
The problem is that Australia is extremely dependent on highly polluting industries: it is the biggest coal exporter in the world, and 80 percent of its power plants are coal-fired. Emissions trading would add 30 percent to the average Australian's energy bill, several independent organisations have calculated. The climate change sceptics also fear Rudd's plans will cost the Australian mining industry tens of thousands of jobs.

Minchin's opposition to the government's climate policy has also created turmoil in his own Liberal party. On Tuesday Liberal party leader Malcolm Turnbull was ousted after his proposal to back the government's policy was defeated by a motion led by the climate change sceptics.

Turnbull fears the liberals may be on the wrong side of history. Last week a survey by the newspaper The Australian found 67 percent of Australians is in favour of Rudd's plans. "If Minchin wins this battle he will make our party irrelevant," Turnbull said on Tuesday.
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